Why Maintenance Beats Dieting for These Six Weeks — And the Exact Playbook to Pull It Off
December 2023
Welcome back to the Fitness Edda. I’m Erik Castiglione, owner and head coach of Viking Athletics, and if you catch me in a ridiculous Christmas sweater at some point this month, that’s just the uniform — it’s cold out, and they’re warm. Since we’re already in the holiday spirit, that’s a good excuse to talk about this week’s topic: weight loss during the holidays.
Notice I phrased that as a question, not a statement. That’s on purpose. We’re going to walk through the factors that actually drive holiday weight gain, and then give you our real recommendation for what to do about it — which isn’t what most people expect.
Quick answer: we generally advise against trying to lose weight during the holidays. Instead, focus on maintenance — holding steady where you’re at. Do that, and you’ll already be ahead of everyone else by New Year’s Day, without setting yourself up to fail. Here’s why, and how to actually do it. Either watch the video, or read the transcript below.
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
01:28 Weight Gain Statistics
05:27 Understanding Appetite
10:15 Setting Yourself Up for Success
13:41 Practical Tips
What is the Average Holiday Weight Gain Amongst Adults?
According to the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the average adult gains somewhere between half a kilo and a full kilo per year — roughly 1.1 to 2.2 pounds. The important part isn’t the number itself, it’s what kind of weight that is: fat that’s accumulated and never lost. Your scale might swing five to ten pounds season to season from water weight and sweat, but that’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about stored body fat that sticks around.
Do that math over five years and you’re looking at five to ten pounds of pure accumulation — the kind that doesn’t come back off on its own. And here’s the part that matters most for this conversation: that weight gain isn’t spread evenly across the year. Somewhere between 50 and 90 percent of it happens in the last six weeks of the year alone.
Think about what’s actually happening in that window. Leftover Halloween candy is still floating around when Christmas candy shows up right behind it — red and green M&Ms, Hershey Kisses, the works. Thanksgiving itself is a massive meal, followed by days of leftovers. Christmas cookies and pies start appearing on every office counter and kitchen table. Then there’s the holiday parties — work parties, friend gatherings, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, whatever you celebrate — most of it centered around food and alcohol. Cap it off with New Year’s Eve, historically one of the biggest drinking nights of the year.
Six weeks. Nonstop sweets, alcohol, big meals, and social gatherings. That’s exactly why the bulk of annual weight gain lands right here.
One more thing worth saying: we’ve already put out a piece about not stress-eating your way through Thanksgiving guilt — it’s one meal, don’t let it wreck your relationship with food. That’s still true. But Thanksgiving isn’t just “one meal in isolation” — it’s the opening bell of this six-week stretch, and that context matters.
It’s Not Just Willpower — Here’s What’s Actually Driving Your Appetite
Most people assume weight management comes down to willpower: eat when you’re hungry, stop when you’re full. But hunger is only one input, and it’s more chemically complicated than a growling stomach — it’s regulated by two hormones, leptin and ghrelin, and plenty of eating happens without either one signaling true hunger.
A few other drivers worth knowing about:
Boredom eating. Sitting on the couch watching TV, not really into the show, and suddenly you want a snack — not because you’re hungry, but because your hands and brain want something to do. Alcohol works the same way. A lot of people have coupled “unwind with a drink” and “unwind while watching TV” so tightly that the two feel inseparable, and untangling that habit is genuinely hard.
Emotional coping. Some people drink, some people eat, but food and alcohol are both common outlets for stress — and the holidays bring plenty of it. For some people this time of year isn’t the happiest season, especially if they’ve lost someone during the holidays in the past. That emotional weight is real and it shows up at the table.
Social pressure. Grandma pushing a second and third helping on you isn’t just a joke — it’s a real force. And here’s the double whammy: you can feel guilty about overindulging, or guilty about disappointing grandma by saying no, and either way you often end up eating more than you meant to.
Put it together and you can see why “just don’t eat too much” is bad advice dressed up as good advice. There’s a lot more going on under the hood than hunger alone.
Why “Just Say No” Doesn’t Work
Willpower gets treated like an on/off switch, but it isn’t one. Unless you happen to be Batman or Doctor Doom, your resolve is going to crack under enough pressure eventually — and the holidays apply a lot of pressure.
Oscar Wilde put it well: “The only way to get rid of temptation is to yield to it.” Once you give in, it stops being tempting. The people who look the most disciplined usually aren’t white-knuckling their way through constant temptation — they’ve just designed their environment so the temptation doesn’t show up in the first place. Mr. Miyagi’s version: “Best block, no be there.”
At home, that’s manageable — don’t keep a plate of cookies on the counter, don’t stock the pantry with treats you don’t want to eat through. But in a social setting, that control disappears. You can’t redesign your aunt’s dining room table, and the social pressure and guilt we just covered are working against you the whole time.
Why We Recommend Maintenance Over Dieting Right Now
You’ll see plenty of fitness influencers this time of year pushing the “if it’s worth doing, start now, don’t wait for January” message. They’re not wrong — momentum matters, and small consistent steps compound into real results over time. You don’t need to overhaul everything on December 1st.
But given everything we just covered — six weeks of parties, sweets, alcohol, and social pressure stacked on top of each other — is a full-blown fat-loss push really the right move right now? Our answer is no. Trying to diet hard through the most chaotic six weeks of the calendar is a great way to set yourself up to fail, and failure here tends to do more damage to your mindset than the actual pounds do.
So here’s what we suggest instead: aim for maintenance. Just hold where you’re at.
Remember, the average adult accumulates half a pound to almost two pounds of real, un-lost fat every single year. If you can get through these six weeks without adding to that pile, you’re already ahead of the game come January 1st — without ever stepping into a deficit during the hardest six weeks to sustain one. Think of it like personal finance: you’re not saving money, but you’re also not going into debt you’ll have to dig yourself out of later. Breaking even during the hardest stretch of the year still puts you ahead of everyone who gains their usual pound or two.
Meanwhile, this is a great window to build momentum on the exercise side. Motivation typically dips somewhere around the six-to-eight-week mark for most people starting something new — so if you put in these six weeks now, you’ll already be past that dip and running on habit, not motivation, by the time everyone else is still writing their New Year’s resolutions.
The Viking Athletics Holiday Maintenance Playbook
If maintenance is the goal, here’s exactly how we tell our members to execute it.
Get your protein in early. If you know you’ve got a party, a family dinner, or a night out ahead of you, front-load protein earlier that day. Look at a typical holiday spread — one protein-heavy main dish surrounded by a table full of starchy sides. If you’re already satisfied from protein earlier in the day, you’re less likely to overdo it on the sides, less likely to need greasy bar food to soak up alcohol later, and covered even if the dinner table doesn’t offer much protein at all.
Play the rule of two at sit-down dinners. Think of a full holiday dinner as five courses: appetizers, bread, entrée, dessert, and alcohol. Pick two. Want an appetizer? Pair it with your entrée and stop there. Want dessert? Enjoy your entrée and dessert, skip the rest. You’re still participating — you’re just not doing all five, because doing all five is how you end up at a three-to-four-thousand-calorie meal without even noticing, especially once you factor in how much butter, oil, and sauce restaurant food is typically swimming in.
One drink, one glass of water. Alcohol is, technically, a poison your body works to filter out — a delicious one, but still. That process dehydrates you, and dehydration can get mistaken for hunger. Alternate every alcoholic drink with a glass of water and you’ll pace yourself better, stay more hydrated, and avoid the kind of “hunger” that’s really just thirst in disguise.
Build your plate in quarters. Fill half your plate with fruits and vegetables, a quarter with protein, and leave the last quarter for the starchy sides you actually want to sample. You’ll hit every food group, fill up on the most satiating foods on the table, and naturally leave less room to overdo it.
Stack all four of these through the season and you’ve got a real shot at walking into January having maintained instead of gained.
The Bottom Line
We’re generally against trying to lose weight during the last six weeks of the year — there’s too much stacked against you, and failing at it can do more damage to your mindset than the extra calories do to your waistline. Instead, aim to maintain. Hold steady through the parties, the sweets, and the alcohol, and you’ll finish the year ahead of the pack simply by not adding to the one-to-two pounds most people accumulate annually without ever losing it. Same math as staying out of debt — you’re not saving anything extra, but you’re not digging a hole either, and that alone puts you ahead of where most people land by New Year’s Day.
FAQ: Holiday Weight Gain, Quickly
How much weight do people actually gain over the holidays? Most adults gain roughly half a pound to two pounds of body fat per year, and 50 to 90 percent of that occurs in the last six weeks of the year — from Thanksgiving through New Year’s.
Should I try to lose weight during the holidays? Generally, no. With six weeks of parties, alcohol, and big meals working against you, attempting a fat-loss phase right now sets you up to fail. Aim for maintenance instead, and start a real fat-loss phase once the season settles down.
What’s the “rule of two” for holiday dinners? Treat a holiday dinner as five potential courses — appetizer, bread, entrée, dessert, alcohol — and pick two to actually enjoy. It lets you participate without defaulting into a 3,000-4,000 calorie meal.
Does alcohol make you hungrier over the holidays? Indirectly, yes. Alcohol dehydrates you, and your body can mistake dehydration for hunger. Alternating each drink with a glass of water helps you pace yourself and avoid that false hunger signal.
Is holiday weight gain really just about willpower? No. Hunger is regulated by hormones (leptin and ghrelin), but boredom, emotional stress, and social pressure all drive eating independent of actual hunger — especially during the holidays.
Have a topic you want covered in a future episode of the Fitness Edda? Drop it in the comments and we’ll get to it.
Erik Castiglione is the owner and head coach of Viking Athletics in West Hartford, CT.